When Tinubu made his ECOWAS speech a few weeks ago, before the Niger Republic coup, saying ECOWAS would fight against the recent spate of coups, it was obvious that he was speaking in our Western Masters voice since all the coups were Russian inspired against Western friendly governments. Ever since coming to power, Tinubu has been dancing to Western Powers neo-liberal economic demands of subsidy removal and devaluation to win their approval, at the expense of destroying our economic sustenance. Fighting a Western proxy war against Russia in Niger will destroy our political existence.
As it is, Tinubu’s quest for power has put a question mark on the sustainability of the Nigeria political system by truncating the rotational presidency arrangement, taking SE slot, which will result in Igbos, Deltans and Middlebelters disengage from the rotational agreement since it is based against them. Also, Christians are unlikely to accept a return to a Northern Muslim President after Tinubu, making three consecutive Muslim presidents. However these issues are not giving him any sleepless nights since they would come to play only at the end of his tenure.
Tinubu played and negotiated his way to presidency, raising the question of legitimacy, home and abroad. Normally, a person that circumvents the electoral system is not concerned about legitimacy at home since he didn’t get his power from the electorate, so they can’t take the power from him. African leaders don’t really care about legitimacy at home, otherwise we won’t have leaders like Museveni, Paul Biya, Paul Kigame rigging for the last 30yrs to stay in power. What really matters and sustains them in power is the backing of the Western Powers. Even genuine leaders that rightfully won the elections and are pro-people still seek the backing of Western Powers to prevent economic and military sabotage.
Though all 2023 presidential candidates could be said to be part of the political class of the neocolonial guard, it appeared the Western Powers and some local stakeholders rightly threw their support behind Peter Obi based on the high moral grounds of rotational presidency to ensure peace and harmony. Tinubu rejected the thinking based on the fact that he had served the Western Powers more than his competitors since 1999. First and foremost, he was used to arrest the economic and political development of Yorubaland by keeping power away from the populist Afenifere that would have been spread the dividends of democracy wider and more progressively. He was also engaged to let President Goodluck Jonathan win in 2011 and Buhari in 2015, so that’s where the sense of Emilokan entitlement came from. However, the powers that be were not concerned about past services and personal ambition, but to keep Nigeria peaceful and one by rightfully backing an Igbo.
Having been used and empowered since 1999 with immense political and economic resources, derived from Lagos finances and oilwells through his proxy in Oando, the largest subsidy funds reciever, Tinubu was to play the system and bought his way through against the wishes of the Western Powers and leadership of the local neocolonial guard. The powers that be were intransigent on their choice of Peter Obi, but as luck and international geopolitical expediency will have it, the West were losing the Sahel and especially it’s uranium supply for their nuclear capabilities. Tinubu as an opportunitist saw the opening and offered to take the job of slavecatcher. Being a Muslim to invade another Muslim nation, more naturally Ogun belligerent than Peter Obis Yemoja aura is tempting to the West. But, Tinubu will be chewing more than he can swallow, ignorant that the way to reclaiming Niger Republic is filled with landmines.
First and foremost, Nigeria would be the grass that the two elephants, UK/France and Russia/China would be fighting. Just like Iraq and Syria, the Western Powers are failing to consider the tribal issues. With Russia already taking Mali, Upper Volta and Chad that surround Niger, the only two routes to it’s capital Niamey is the tiny portion of northern Benin Republic and the already volatile Nigeria Northwest region of Sokoto, Zamfara and Katsina states that shares the border. A war might have an unintended consequence of reviving the Fulani versus Hausa war, especially with Iran as Russia’s ally might turn it into a Shia versus Sunni war.
When the Fulani took over Hausaland, the Hausa aristocracy fled to Gobir/Maradi area in Niger Republic, so the Hausas in Nigeria and Niger are close cousins that would want to see off the Fulani Caliphates. Shia Islamic sect is against dynastic monarchs and caliphs and seek leaders passed on theocracy where the most knowledgeable and passionate about Islam become the leaders, Ayatollahs, so it appeals to a number of revolutionary Hausas. Therefore a war in the area might see Nigerian Hausas sabotage the Western backed war against their Niger cousins.
If the superpower war drags on, Russia might also play a trump card by arming Southern and Middlebelt separatists that would totally engulf Nigeria and the entire West African region. Just as South and Middlebelt separatists could be enticed with a separate nation of their own, Hausas in Ghana, Nigeria and Niger might see it as an opportunity for an Hausa nation. Even if the Russians don’t arm the Yoruba, Igbo and other separatists, if Tinubu was to lose power to the revolting Northerners, in order to regain Nigeria, the West would arm the Yorubas/Igbos to get a foothold to push from the South to the North to retake Nigeria. Depending on the propaganda and weapons used in Yorubaland, a religious war could also be sparked between the mainly Christian Separatists and pro-Muslim Nigeria Yorubas. Another possibility is if Tinubu loses power in the war but survives, how will he use Yorubaland in the proxy war to regain power. The same quagmire could play out in Delta for the control of oil.
The greatest twist in the story is if as predicted the Ukraine War between the West and Russia/China turns to a nuclear holocaust. It is highly unlikely that the nuclear war will be fought in Nigeria or Africa, but the superpowers mutual destruction would leave the various groups fighting their proxy wars here stranded and vulnerable. Overall it would be a very messy situation and turn out to be like what happened in China, with different factions, the nationalists and republicans fighting themselves to a standstill before a new force, Mao Communists, were armed to takeover and unify. A process of over 50yrs.
If care is not taken, one man’s ambition might spell the death of tens of millions. We are more or less resigned to fate, as Tinubu will go to all lengths to get the Western backing to safeguard himself in power. Although some argue that at this point, with the West hell-bent on retrieving the uranium rich Niger, and the border between Benin and Niger too narrow to launch a war, the West might force their way through Nigeria by all means possible as done with Iran-Iraq. When the US puppet Shah of Iran was overthrown, unable to use the weak Iraqi government to invade Iran, they overthrew the Iraq government next door and brought in a soldier Sadaam Hussein to invade Iran. So it appears the Universe has placed Nigeria in a tight position, which is indicative of the global polycrisis and the movement of humanity towards an Apocalypse, only after which humanity will have a change in global consciousness towards Justice, in what is known as the Apocalyptic Biblical Third Horseman and Judgement Day; the 2000 year Age of Shango/Amadiora. The world will earn a bloody nose costing billions of lives over issues of Justice, Equity and Innovation that will prompt cultural, economic and political revolutions.
In a previous article, I analyzed that with the current state of Nigeria with huge unemployment and poverty, the only way a leader can capture the masses attention and mobilize them with patriotic feelings to avert social upheavals and revolution, is by engaging in massive economic liberating infrastructure or go to war like Western democracies which I ruled out. He doesn’t have the disposition, will and stoicism for major infrastructural developments, nor the weapons to fight wars. But with this scenario, he will be given Western weapons and backing but it will consume the region. Ideally, a Nigerian President should refuse to attack it’s neighbor, and unite the country behind him to prevent either the West or East from overthrowing him, but Tinubu doesn’t have the legitimacy and backing to captivate and unite the majority.
