President Goodluck’s dip in popularity started with the January 1st 2012 Oil subsidy withdrawal. A very good idea since the fact that no investor will invest billions in any industry that the government sets the price, led to a moribund petrochemical sector for 40yrs.
The removal of oil subsidies was a very difficult political decision since implemented by Gowon. Such subsidy removals led to IMF riots and toppled governments in the Eighties, like the great Kenneth Kaunda over corn subsidy removal.
Shagari, Buhari, IBB, Abacha and Obasanjo all avoided the thorny issue. But not Goodluck whose region produced the oil and needed to develop the petrochemical industry that would take at least 5million jobs from USA alone.
Despite being a hard sell to the public, GEJ administration did itself no favors implementing it on the 1st of January when most people were broke and probably on vacation. Secondly, his economic team failed to sell it properly. Technocrats like Ngozi Iweala and Segun Aganga rarely have the demeanor to beat their own drums – with top professionals its ‘take it or leave it, I have done the best possible!’ In addition, there was the inherited financial jihadist Sanusi whose political motive was to undermine the government.
Even I for 20yrs took the position that the subsidy should continue, until I talked with my late friend Nani Abah who was one of the first people to receive a refinery license but couldn’t get investment for over a decade.
So, apart that the government didn’t define its economic position, those who benefit from the huge unfair subsidies as well as those who would lose millions of jobs in the western world were apt to launch a full scale war through the civil society and social media.
Instead, the government should have waged a media war against the few billionaire subsidy collectors like Wale Tinubu, and changed the subsidy to health or education where all igerians could benefit.
Unfortunately all was lost as the petrol price fixing continued, our petrochemical development stalled since the Chinese that were meant to build 6 refineries withdrew, and the only way was to beg Dangote to build a refinery with the promise that the subsidies will be withdrawn later.
The next but even more important was the privatization of the power sector. Like the oil subsidy, power privatization had been on the table since the 1980s when I was studying economics in UNIFE. Like the Uk privatizations of coal and electricity that cost Margaret Thatcher a lot of political capital, all past nigerian leaders since Buhari were scared of taking the bull by its horns. Obasanjo made the attempt but in the end passed the ball when it came to dismembering one of the largest single employers called NEPA.
Goodluck lost a power minister that was forced to resign after series of sabotage. However, 10 new independent powerplants were built. Majority were gas plants, Nigerian being a gas rich country. But, also being a country rich in economic saboteurs, the gas pipelines were vunerable.
Around 2012 power generation increased from about 2300 to about 4500, and people were noticably overjoyed by near constant supply. If only, it could continued to the elections no weapon fashioned against Goodluck, the son of Jonathan would have worked!
However, in popular Christian parlance, the Principalities of this world saw that his power plan won’t continue to see the light of the day. Apart from meters and other Nepa iassets pilfered by disgrunted workers, those with economic or political motives started blowing up gas pipelines supplying the powerplants.
The motive remains unclear but whoever carried them out used Niger deltan militancy and economic bunkerers as disguise. But who exactly carried it out remained a mystery like the millions of slave kidnappings over 350yrs and the recent kidnapping of 200 Chibok girls.
Since there was no obvious economic motive – not generator dealers – the question is who has the political motive that could be tied to geopolitical interests.
When the West involvement in Boko Haram, APC et al is taken into consideration, I won’t put it pass USA interests that are fully aware that Nigeria is THE competitor this century – the fastest growing nation in economic and population terms. China will overtake US by 2020 and at the rate China is build economic infrastructure in Nigeria, nigeria will overtake US in population and economics by 2060!
And yet Nigerians are in disbelief that the usa could do such. Not knowing that as far back as 1600, the Imperialists went to mine cowries off the coast of kenya to be dumped in nigeria, to sabotage the economy. Reduced to barter they then dumped 400,000 guns a year to promote anarchy, which brought about slavery. Eventually, they offered protection against slavery and anarchy called colonies.
Essentially, we are still colonies where resources are to be sold raw while they dump their manufactures. Any change to that economic status quo will attract stiff opposition, which has been the bane of Dr. Goodluck jonathan. Ultimately you spend a lot of political capital to make change, but you can only regain it by properly informing the electorate!
At this stage our true leaders should be immune to petty anticorruption aka Jihad, tricks since 1000yrs ago… Miltary coups… Says a lot about the miseducation of the negro!
