The most important Yoruba aspirations should be based on maximum economic and political benefits to the masses.
That the Nigerian status quo is not fulfilling Yorubas aspiration in the present structure is a foregone conclusion, so what is the way forward.
Some have stated categorically that a Yoruba tribal nation, Odua, will be the best vehicle to achieve this, but there has been no robust balanced argument to analyze its pros and cons since many don’t see it even achievable.
The stark reality is that Odua proponents neither have the arms to demarcate the territory militarily, nor do they have the electoral numbers to achieve it democratically.
For sometime, many hoped Nnamidi Kanu and Igbos will cause the anarchy and war that will create the opportunity, but Igbos are no longer willing to be Nigeria’s crash dummies.
So, so much for a self determination battle that relies on others to start the fight and it is for this reason many believe it is oxymoronic to even discuss the pros and cons of Odua Republic.
However, it is necessary to address the seperatist issue to enable the Yorubas focus on our collective aspirations. Odua sounds so good as the panacea to all Yorubas problems, making it necessary that some fallacies have to debunked especially regarding the economic and geopolitical advantages.
The common misconception is that Yorubas would be much better off economically, if the much touted contribution of Lagos and its ports, which some claim is about 60% of Nigeria’s GDP is spent only on Yorubaland alone.
However, they refuse to consider the fact that at least 50% of Lagos imports and production is for the rest of the country and will be diverted once we become a separate nation.
Majority of the Lagos manufacturing base is foreign owned and the decision to locate it there is based on the Nigerian population as a whole, not Yorubas. Especially with its colonial beginnings as a standalone Colony of Lagos status.
Obviously, with a breakup in Nigeria, the Igbos will switch to Port Harcourt and Calabar ports while the North will switch away not only because of a contested Kwara/kogi but also for geopolitical considerations.
The British have fought to keep Nigeria One because of its Northern Protectorate need for access to seaports and the French.
The British won the colonization of Africa battle with the French because Nigeria alone has a greater population than the combined population of all French colonies in Africa.
Colonies were created essentially for markets and raw materials control.
In the event Nigeria breaks up, the British will have to choose the South, since a British Northern protectorate will be landlocked by French sphere of influence that will now include South.
If the North falls to the French, then they become the most important colonial power in Africa due to market size.
In the event Nigeria breaks up, the French will offer the NW Sokoto caliphate the use of its Cotonou free port, which is actually more of a straight line to Sokoto than Lagos. Also, the likelihood that there would be conflict along the Middlebelt, preventing free flow of imports traffic between Lagos and Sokoto caliphate.
The same thing would occur in the Northeast Bornu, which will be inspired to use the Doula Cameroon ports that it used before colonization – the Slave Trade Route.
It would be a fulfilment of French colonial Africa dreams of a land corridor from the mouth of Senegal River to Kongo River, which were dashed by the fast movement of the British that took the North and prevented the link of French West Africa to French Equatorial Africa.
The North would have been the jewel of the crown of French colonial Africa, because it was the population center of the Sahel that it controlled. They had planned to use steamboats and later railway along River Niger to River Senegal.
In the event of a Nigeria breakup, the French will not only capitalize on the opportunity by building a railway line straight to Sokoto, but would also encourage the development of an industrial base in Cotonou since it now has the same and even larger market size that Lagos fed on to become the most prosperous city.
The huge Nigerian market size that lowers unit cost of production of the British companies, like UAC, PZ, Glaxo, Lever Brothers that account for the lion share of manufacturing in Lagos, will face increase unit production costs with a lower Odua market size, while French West Africa market size buoyed by the inclusion of Northern Nigeria, will make French companies more competitive and able to create a manufacturing base in Cotonou that would also smuggle goods into Yorubaland.
Currently, the French intentionally keeps Cotonou a freeport in order to encourage the smuggling of tax-free products through the Benin borders that stretch alongside the entire Yorubaland western borders. With the marriage between Fulani and French, the Fulani will also have direct contact along the Benin border, which it didn’t have in Nigeria due to the Middlebelt buffer zone. The grassland corridor will return to being the underbelly of Yorubaland as it was during the slavery era.
Yorubas would once again face the infiltrations alongside it’s Western borders that earned it the infamous label of the Slave Coast. The French had been curtailed due to the low Benin population, but things will change with the influx of the Afro-Arabic grassland population.
The constrained economic and political space will revamp ancient citystate rivalries and ambitions – the Oyo, Ife, Ekitis, Ijebus with the new member citystate Lagos.
Lagos is showing that it is susceptible to political feudal territorial ambitions, as we have witnessed Tinubu control for 20 unbroken years.
So with the French-Fulani population on the western border, the Middlebelt in our Northern border that can turn into another 50yr war like Kashmir between Pakistan and India, and an unclear Eastern border with Edo and Delta Igbo, I wonder how Odua proponents can believe it is for the better.
Lagos, Yoruba economic center, will lose its market and port traffic to Cotonou, while we will be susceptible to Fulani attacks from the Benin, especially over Kwara and Kogi States.
With the troubles of the hinterland, in order to lose Lagos economic viability, the British and the monies classes might decide to revert to its colonial standalone status, like they extracted Singapore from Malaysia, to act as their regional base. The ploy would be crime control and indirect immigration restrictions.
A similar scenario will apply to Biafra, which will not only be reliant on the Niger Delta to the South and Middlebelt to the North, but also if Bornu falls to the French will put Islamic/French maneuvers on its Eastern border through Cameroon. Cameroon through the French have already taken Bakassi.
Now, this doesn’t mean that Yorubas should continue with the status quo. It means that instead of fighting backward and allowing us to be cornered, Yoruba leadership should come out fighting to confront and defeat British, French and Fulani/Islamist imperialists. This would essentially change the focus from a fight for Yoruba interests to a fight for the Black Race.
Yoruba are the oldest, most prosperous and populous Original African group and if it decides to fight only for its own survival, it would perish with all other 2240 Original African groups.
The only way for Yorubas is to create a cultural and political platform that will unite all Niger-Kongo ethnolinguistic groups known as Original Africans in Southbelt and Middlebelt to takeover Nigeria from Fulani and British control, preferably by democratic means.
But, if they reject or sabotage the electoral means, with the united numbers of Original Africans, we can attract Russian and Chinese military backing to march to Sokoto. We shouldnt make the mistake of just retracting our territory like Oyo did, but seek to exert control on the territory and return to the Hausa landowners to preclude the French-Fulani alliance. If the Fulani are to leave, they must leave as they came, without territory, otherwise Yoruba land will forever be vulnerable from the west.
Neither should uniting original African/Niger-Kongo ethnolinguistics groups or controlling Nigeria be the ultimate goal, because we will still have the West African Sahel united on the Afro-Arabic Fulani platform as well as the British and French vying for control over Africa. While the Fulani unifies the Sahel on an Islamic platforms, Yorubas should endeavor to unite the forests and coastal Africa to create an effective check and balance.
Once Nigeria is secured on an Original African platform, restructured as ethnic self determined federation, it should use the power of the African Giant to spread restructuring across Africa, starting with the Yorubas in French Benin and Igbos in French Cameroon.
The ultimate vision is a loose federation across Africa where every ethnic group will have full determination of its culture, economics and politics defined by Original African and Afroasian platforms, not British and French.
With original Africans accounting for 70% of Nigeria and Africas population, they will be the dominant force that will enable the rise of the entire Black Race.
Unfortunately, some in the Yoruba political class are pained by the fact the rotational presidency precludes them from power for 40yrs after Obasanjos rule, long after their careers would have ended. But instead of selfish short term interests, the current political class must endeavor to build a foundation that can propel future generations to global ascendancy.
